Prof. Smart Sarpong Predicts Run-Off in Ghana’s 2024 Presidential Election

 

Renowned political researcher, Prof. Smart Sarpong, has predicted a highly competitive presidential election on December 7, 2024, with Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia leading the first round of voting. However, his forecast indicates that the election will likely proceed to a run-off due to the inability of any candidate to secure the required 50%+1 votes to win outright.


Key Findings


Prof. Sarpong presented the findings at a press conference held on Thursday, November 21, 2024, at the Erata Hotel. His research, themed "Evidence from Science and Data," analyzed voter intentions across the country and revealed the following projections:


Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (NPP): 49.1%


John Dramani Mahama (NDC): 45.8%


Nana Kwame Bediako (New Force): 2.2%


Alan Kyerematen (Independent): 1.2%


Other Candidates Combined: 1.7%



The analysis covered a sample size of 99,355 respondents from 4,272 communities nationwide, representing a significant portion of Ghana's total population of 18,807,954.


Regional Dynamics


Prof. Sarpong outlined the regional support bases for the two leading candidates:


Dr. Bawumia's strongholds include Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, and Western regions.


Mr. Mahama's strongholds are Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Volta, and Western North regions.



These regional dynamics reflect the broader political landscape, with each candidate leveraging historical support patterns to bolster their chances.

Third-Party Performance

A notable highlight of the research is the emergence of Nana Kwame Bediako, also known as Freedom Jacob Caesar, leader of the New Force party. He is projected to secure 2.2% of the vote, positioning himself ahead of experienced politician Alan Kyerematen, who is expected to receive 1.2%.


Parliamentary Projections


In addition to the presidential race, Prof. Sarpong shared predictions for parliamentary elections:


New Patriotic Party (NPP): 128 seats (with potential gains of 41 seats).


National Democratic Congress (NDC): 92 seats (with possible gains of 15 seats).



These projections suggest the NPP may maintain a slim parliamentary majority, but the race remains competitive.


Implications and Insights


Prof. Sarpong emphasized that while Dr. Bawumia leads in the first-round projections, the narrow margin suggests the election will likely head to a run-off. "As of November 16, 2024, Dr. Bawumia had 49.1%, followed by Mr. Mahama at 45.8%. Only one of these two parties has a chance of winning outright in the first round, with the NPP having a slightly higher likelihood," he stated.


The results underscore the importance of voter turnout and strategic campaigning in key battleground regions.


Conclusion


As Ghana approaches its December 7 polls, the predictions point to one of the most competitive elections in recent history. With the prospect of a run-off looming, both the ruling NPP and opposition NDC will likely intensify their efforts to secure a decisive victory. The stakes are high, and the coming weeks promise to be pivotal in shaping the country’s political future.


Story by Mizpah Ampem Darko.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

DDLF PARTNER MS GALAXY TO EMPOWER KAYAYEI WITH TRANSFORMATIVE SKILLS

Image
The David Douglas Leadership Forum in collaboration with the winner of Ms Galaxy International USA 2024, Keerah Yeowang  held a transformative training program for  some head porters commonly known as ‘Kayayei’ at Madina Kkayayei Empowerment Training Center.   The day long workshop focused on specialized skilled areas such as; Pageantry, Modeling, Make up, Self Esteem and Self Confidence.   Ms Keerah Yeowang highlighted that as a  queen, it was her project to train young women on how to get back their self esteem and to build self confidence. She expressed how overwhelming it was to be at the Kayayei Empowerment Training Center and be part of the pioneers to contribute to the development of Kayayei.   " I chose Kayayei empowerment center because it is a perfect way for me to give back to the women who are  just like me, she said." Mr Isaac Adu Bamfo, the  Greater Accra Regional Youth Organizer for the David Douglas Leadership Forum  (DDLF) sa...
Read more

Nkonya Secondary School Launches 60th Anniversary, Urges Government to Invest in School Facilities

Image
Nkonya Secondary School (Nkosec) has officially launched its 60th anniversary celebration with a strong call to the government to invest in the improvement of the school’s facilities. The anniversary, themed "Fulfilling the Aspirations of the Founding Fathers," pays tribute to the founders who have played a vital role in the school's development through their dedication and provision of resources. Professor Francis Ato, a lecturer at the University of Ghana and a former teacher at Nkonya Secondary, was one of the key speakers at the event. He announced that the anniversary celebration would culminate in a grand event on November 17, 2024. The celebrations will include various activities and engagements that aim to unite the school community and stakeholders in recognizing Nkosec’s achievements and future prospects. Prof. Ato called on all stakeholders, including the media, old students, and well-wishers both within Ghana and abroad, to join in supporting the school during...
Read more

Rotaract Club of Accra-Labone and partners mark Global Handwashing Day at Flagstaff House Basic School

Image
The Rotaract Club of Accra-Labone marked Global Handwashing Day by visiting Flagstaff House Basic School and donating vital hygiene supplies to highlight the importance of handwashing and sanitation The club donated items such as handwashing soap, tissues, and 4 CD Wash Stations to enhance the school's hygiene practices and promote regular handwashing, a simple but crucial step in preventing illness. Rotaractor Ethel Odoi, a general nurse, taught the process of washing the hands. She gave the importance of washing the hands such as prevention of disease and being healthy.  "Handwashing is a simple yet powerful tool in preventing illnesses and saving lives," said President Jonas Dela Amadzor of the Rotaract Club of Accra-Labone. He said rotary has 7 areas of focus when it comes to executing projects.  He hopes that this practice helps reduce disease infection. Madam Godrica Rosemary Naa Dei Kotei, President of the Rotaract Club of Accra-Osu Oxford Street, stressed the role...
Read more